But value betting can be a very fruitful strategy for the long run. It requires another investment of effort and time to spot. One needs good knowledge of the game/teams/players, as well as probability prediction to succeed.
The sharp bettors use their own rating system for each team and then compare those ratings against the odds set by the bookmaker to see if there are any opportunities. They also monitor public betting to find any possible void that might present itself as an opportunity.
Study the Odds
Value-betting is about figuring your own chances to win an event, then seeing how this matches up against what the bookmakers are offering. The bigger the difference, and the more it differs from your personal calculations, the more money you have the potential to rake in. It’s a tough job: it requires long hours of research and a deep knowledge of the event you’re betting on. You can use sites that provide you with odds comparison or predictive models, but you should never let your own judgment be subordinate to them when placing a bet.
These sharp bettors rely on mathematical, statistical, video study and proven angles before they put money on a bet, leaving the guesswork to novice gamblers. They wouldn’t dream of betting on the teams they root for themselves.
It is these sharp bettors who universally approach the game of sports betting from a position of sound and disciplined bankroll management. Armed with a proven plan, they do not chase losses and bet for the sake of betting just because something is on the board. They know they can’t win all of their bets, and they won’t try to force one just because it’s there.
Study the Lines
Identifying value bets and appreciating their value are both fundamental skills for any punter, regardless of experience or philosophical approach. It takes careful and extensive research into team news, injuries and form to identify such opportunities.
Developing an appreciation of betting value is not quick or easy, but when accomplished allows you to make smart bets at the right moments, and deliver sustainable rates of return for a lifetime. The obvious starting point here is betting on leagues or tournaments that you feel you know well and, from there, expanding your portfolio gradually.
You will only enhance your odds of finding value bets through the use of advanced betting strategies such as arbitrage betting, using Asian handicap lines and line shopping.
Study the Market
Value betting is when you find a betting opportunity where the true probabilities of an outcome have greater odds than those given to punters. Thus, a profitable opportunity has been found, because it offers greater value. If done well, value betting can be extremely profitable, but high-volume betting can be very time-consuming, both when hunting for opportunities and when getting on.
Certainly, by learning statistics or becoming a specialist in one sport, or in one league in a sport (there is a particular proficiency in predicting NHL playoff series outcomes), bettors can raise the chances of landing a plus EV. More elaborate methods, such as arbitrage or ‘line shopping’, require still more exact steps and more attentive plucking.
Bankroll risk for bad or extended losing streaks can jeopardise the profitability of the value bets, and bankroll management is also vital. Odds are subject to change as markets respond to perceived probabilities, and bettors must be constantly aware of and tracking them to stay in step with currently available odds.
Study the Trends
Identifying value bets is both rewarding and difficult, and bookmakers are always improving their odds-setting models to make this harder still. Good bankroll management is paramount to achieving profitability in the long term; bettors should set clear rules about how much of their bankroll to bet on each individual bet, so that they can withstand losing runs without losing determination about their targets.
They are not analysing every market that’s available – they are experts in one sport or one league, and they spend time becoming experts in that area. It’s not easy but it pays off in the long run: you get much better at knowing a sport inside out, and you can spot trends and use tools that make it quicker.
Study the Players
It’s a strategy for getting rich over time – a deliberate, knowledgeable approach to gambling that rests upon a mathematical foundation. Value betting: mathematically fastidious, and extremely nerdy.
Discerning value bets involves not just knowledge, but also skill – such as assigning appropriate probabilities to sporting outcomes, compared with the odds made available by bookmakers; the latter might be more difficult in complex or unpredictable sports (cricket).
Debt-finance issues mean the bettor must not chase losses or get emotionally wedded to his wager – he will lose a lot of electricity – so bettors will want to adopt a rapid arbitrage betting or so-called ‘line-shopping’ strategy.
